Hit the Panic Button! – 2013 g33kBowl Week 2 Predictions

EVERYBODY PANIC!!!Last week I talked about just how unpredictable the first week of the NFL season can be.  We just don’t know enough about any of the teams playing.  We can make some educated guesses based on past results, but in the end, anything is possible.

Let me tell you what I can predict though, with one hundred percent certainty:  People are going to overreact, in both positive and negative ways, to the results of Week 1.  I’m sure I say something along these lines every year, but do not assume you know what your team is until after Weeks 2 or 3.  If you have a player, and they are still not producing after that amount of time, then they are a lost cause and you need to be rid of them if possible.  Conversely, if a player is still producing after two or three weeks, then odds are they are going to be a pretty good player for you.  Even if they flame out towards the end of the season, the hope is that they helped you win a ton of early games and got you closer to that playoff berth.

That being said, I think there are some things that we can quickly gleam from Week 1.

  • Giants had to bring back Brandon Jacobs to cover for WilsonDavid Wilson is not a RB2 – Everyone wanted to believe the hype and took Wilson really early in drafts.  I was not a huge fan of his, because I remember all of the fumbles he’s had in his short career.  While I will never question the speed or talent Wilson has, the fumbling issue was a little too glaring to ignore and he reminded us of that in Week 1.  Not only that, but with the New York media hounding him, he took to Twitter and made himself look like even more of an egotistical ass.  Perhaps you remember me talking about Wilson in my Draft Guide, and I’m sticking to my assessment.  Maybe later on in the year when the Giants have little to no choice but to play him, he’ll put up some points, but for now stay away.
  • RG3 isn’t 100% healthy – This isn’t that surprising, but even I expected him to look a little bit better than he did in Week 1.  Everyone assume that the designed run plays would go down for Griffen, but his leg seems to be bothering him so much that it is affecting how much umph (technical term) he can put on the ball.  If you have him in a league, and didn’t get a rock solid backup QB, now is the time to do it.  Seriously, get someone who is stable and reliable because RG3 is either going to be injured, or just not be a great fantasy option this season.
  • Triple covered? No problem, I got it.Vincent Jackson is a beast – The news coming out of Tampa Bay is that Josh Freeman is losing his mind and will probably soon be losing his starting job as quarterback.  Despite that, and despite how poorly Freeman played in Week 1 against the Jets, Vincent Jackson continued to show the league just how elite of a WR he is.  Jackson just knows how to make plays, and I’m convinced that no matter who is throwing the ball, Jackson is going to score double digit fantasy points.  Very few wide receivers can make that claim.
  • Quarterbacks are important, and there’s lots of good ones – Of the 12 teams in the g33kBowl, the top scorer for 6 of them was a Quarterback.  Whether it was big games from Peyton Manning or Colin Kaepernick, or “average” games from Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, the QB position can set the tone of your matchup.  Thankfully for us all, there are a great number of elite fantasy QBs.  If you for some reason don’t have a quarterback like that, I suggest you try and target Matt Schaub, Michael Vick, EJ Manuel, or Carson Palmer.  Those guys will be able to put up some huge numbers.

Joey V 2013 Prediction Record: (2-4)

Week 2 Matchups

Hoboken Dread Pirates (0-1)
ARRGAN IISOU (1-0)
Biggest Overreaction
My wide receivers suck!
Biggest Overreaction
If Joey picks against me, I win!

Analysis

Jimmy of ARRGAN IISOU asked me to pick against his team again this week, because he believes that will allow him to win.  So I pick the Hoboken Dread Pirates.

Oh you wanted actual analysis?

OK well here’s a tiny bit.  IISOU may have gotten a steal with Larry Fitzgerald.  Everyone was down on him coming off of last year, but now that Fitzgerald has Carson Palmer throwing him in the ball, Fitz is poised for a return to form.  Witten had a big game, and Matt Forte is great as always.  There is some concern over RB2 position, as Issac Redman got -2 points in Week 1 and then got injured.  He’ll have to fix that, but other than that, Jimmy’s team is looking solid.

Chris and the Hoboken Dread Pirates had a really solid week, until his top tier wide receivers played.  The Dread Pirates got a combined total of 5 points out of Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant.  Do I think that continues?  Absolutely not!  It was a fluke, and those two are going to play better throughout the year.  The question becomes, can Chris continue to get stellar performances out of Colin Kaepernick (likely) and average out of DeMarco Murray and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (unknown).  If that happens though, I actually have a better opinion of the Dread Pirates than initially thought.  I sense a bounce back performance in Week 2 so give me the Dread Pirates!

Predicted Winner: Hoboken Dread Pirates

Mars Space Cowboys (0-1)
Soldier’s Peak Wardens (0-1)
Biggest Overreaction
I knew that Danny Amendola would be great & not injured!
Biggest Overreaction
Steven Ridley is done, I wasted a draft pick!

Analysis

Things went amazingly average for the Mars Space Cowboys last week.  Usually, getting 10-16 points from the majority of your players is a really great way to win a game.  Of course, when you get -4 from the Packers defense, and your opponent gets 20+ from their stars, then you are in for a losing week.  Unfortunately for Pedro and the Space Cowboys, things are going to get worse this week.  Danny Amendola had a great week 1, but he is likely out for week 2 with a groin injury.  Any thought of riding the momentum that Shane Vereen got in week 1 was dashed as Vereen is on the IR and can’t play until week 11.  The team is just going to have to hope that they get bigger performances from their stars like Arian Foster, Steven Jackson, and Vincent Jackson.  A huge game from Eddie Lacy would also help.

For Mike and the Wardens, their first week was mired by feast or famine.  Players either got double digits, or scored something like 2-3 points.  That’s good enough to get you to 80 points, but not enough to win.  The Wardens need to get more consistent play from their stars, and I think that this week they can.  Cam Newton has a great matchup against the Buffalo Bills, Steven Ridley should bounce back against the Jets now that Vereen is out, and Reggie Wayne can have another big week against the Dolphins.  I also like Vernon Davis in this matchup, despite the fact that the 49ers are going against the great Seahawks defense.  I feel like Davis will be covered, but that when there are red zone targets, Davis is going to get them.

Predicted Winner: Soldier’s Peak Wardens

The Besaid Aurochs (0-1)
Scottish Highlanders (1-0)
Biggest Overreaction
I knew MJD would kill my season!
Biggest Overreaction
With Peyton Manning, I can’t lose!

Analysis

Sam and the Scottish Highlanders all of a sudden look like a powerhouse to win the league.  After all, they have Peyton Manning who is on pace to throw 112 touchdowns. How could they possibly lose?  Look we were all impressed with how good Manning looked.  It was an unbelievable game to watch, and the 46 points he scored was a fantastic advantage.  Here’s the shocking thing though.  The Highlanders didn’t even score over 100 points total.  Only 3 players, including Manning, scored double digit fantasy points, and that was Julio Jones with 11 and the kicker Greg Zuerlein with 13.  Everyone else on the team scored somewhere between 2-7 points.  I’m actually looking at the Highlanders and am scared that they might under perform this season.

The Auorchs had a similarly frustrating week of key players having bad games.  Maurice Jones-Drew got beatup by the Chiefs, Roddy White’s injury may be more severe than the Falcons let on, and there was no reason to throw to Dwayne Bowe.  The bright spot for the team is that Jordan Cameron of the Browns looks like a legit top tight end, Darryl Richardson of the Rams did very well with his starting running back opportunity, and RG3 got better as the game went on.

I see potential with the Aurochs, and trouble with the Highlanders.  I may be completely wrong, but for this week I’m going to stick with the Aurochs as my pick.

Predicted Winner: The Besaid Aurochs

Zombie Black Bears (0-1)
Lunaris Robunnys (1-0)
Biggest Overreaction
It’s OK, David Wilson can recover!
Biggest Overreaction
My running backs are the worst!

Analysis

Looking over the Week 1 performances from both the Black Bears and the Robunnys, both teams have obvious issues that pops right out.  Kristen and the Black Bears not only got hurt by the historic Peyton Manning performance, but also got hurt by the ineptitude for David Wilson who netted -3 points.  Yogi and the Robunnys won last week with solid / average performances from everyone except their running backs.  CJ Spiller fumbled and ended up with only 3 points, and Lamar Miller could not break down the Brown’s defense, getting 0 points after 10 carries.

So why am I picking the Robunnys in this matchup?  CJ Spiller is too talented to stay bad for long, and Lamar Miller has a really cushy matchup against the terrible Colts run defense.  Unfortunately for Kristen and the Black Bears though, she’s still stuck with the David Wilson problem.  Wilson has a ton of talent, and maybe when they don’t allow him to have goal line carries that might fix the issue.  Unless the other players on the Black Bears step up, Marshawn Lynch in particular after a 4 point week 1, then this is going to be an issue.

Predicted Winner: Lunaris Robunnys

NJ Fear Boners (0-1)
Hopped Up Titans (1-0)
Biggest Overreaction
They scored 105 points, their team is fine!
Biggest Overreaction
This team is unstoppable!

Analysis

OK, I was obviously wrong about Malfunct and the Hopped Up Titans last week.  They ran up the score on all of us, getting a league high 154 points in their game against The Besaid Aurochs.  Huge games from LeSean McCoy, Victor Cruz, AJ Green and Anquan Boldin set the tone.  The overreaction is to just assume that this team is going to steam roll through everyone.  Obviously, I don’t believe that to be the case.

The Titans are a very good team, and the players I listed are stellar and should have a great season, but I don’t think we are going to see that kind of performance every week.  The good thing is though, that with so many potential high point players, if a few of them have a bad matchup, the other guys can pick up the slack.  That’s going to be a huge advantage for this team.  Something they should look out for though are weeks 9 and 12.  Malfunct has three key players on bye each of those weeks, and with a thin bench that could quickly lead to two losses.  They’ll need to make sure they have a playoff spot solidified before then.

MZ and the NJ Fear Boners on the other hand, had a really good first week.  They scored 105 points as a team, and narrowly lost a close game.  There are concerns though still surrounding the team, especially once you look at how those 105 points were distributed.  28 of them came from Demaryius Thomas, who is obviously capable of that but not necessarily on a consistent basis.  18 came from Owen Daniels, who is a good tight end, but usually sits at about the 6-8 point range for most games.  Getting 20 points from Matthew Stafford and 10 points from the Seahawks defense is actually expected so those were bright points.

The rest of the team underperformed.  Alfred Morris fumbling the ball and getting 8 points isn’t what you want from your first round pick, and Chris Johnson having to run the ball 25 times just to get 70 yards rushing does not bode well.  A whopping 1 point from Mike Wallace can either be a fluke, or an indication that Wallace is going to spend most of his Dolphins career being double covered and frustrated.  All of these issues may just be flukes, but my point is that it’s possible the 105 points overall was a fluke, and that the Fear boners may struggle to score in upcoming matchups.

For this week, I’m going to choose the high upside of the Hopped Up Titans to carry the matchup.

Predicted Winner: Hopped Up Titans

Week 2 Spotlight Match

Citadel Spectres (1-0)
Cydonia Chryssalids (1-0)
Biggest Overreaction
Wes Welker & Jordy Nelson are going to score a lot!
Biggest Overreaction
Andrew Luck is an elite QB!

Analysis

This is the only matchup where both teams won their Week 1 games, and so after this someone is going to be a perfect two for two, while the other is going to have one loss on their record.

It’s no secret that generally speaking, I bet against myself.  I do that not to do some sort of weird reverse jinx or something like that, but because I see every single flaw that my team has.  It’s amplified for me, and so I go nuts and over analyze my team, and also assume that each player I have will have a terrible week.  It’s not terribly rational, but hey, that’s what I do.

In Week 1, both teams had a little bit of fool’s gold.  For the Chryssalids, Andrew Luck had a big week scoring 24 fantasy points.  Yet he only threw for 178 yards.  What saved him was a fourth quarter 20-yard rush that resulted in a TD.  That eight point swing turned an average day into an elite one.  Luck obviously has the talent, but if he was struggling to throw on the Raiders, that’s not a great sign.  For the Spectres, Wes Welker and Jordy Nelson had monster weeks that turned the supposed WR issue into a positive.  Not sure if that can continue.  If anything, I think Nelson can continue to produce as long as he’s healthy, but Welker feels like a fluke.  Far too many options in the Broncos offense, so Welker may end up sucking this week.

For this matchup, I’m going to vote against myself again and go with Chryssalids.  I think the key to this is going to be the emergence of Reggie Bush now playing for the Lions.  Bush was so good in Week 1, and I don’t see any reason to believe that he’s going to slow down at all.  Looking back at the draft, Spectres had a chance at Bush and instead picked Darren Sproles.  That decision may have a huge ramifications this season, and should ensure a Cydonia victory.

Predicted Winner: Cydonia Chryssalids

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Joseph Valenti

Founder of g33kWatch, Joe is the guy who makes sure nobody hurts themselves. Connect with me on Google+

5 Comments:

  1. *sigh* It’s fine, it’s fine. I’ve got this.

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  2. WHY IS THE CLASH OF THE PIRATES MATCH NOT THE HIGHLIGHT?! THIS IS A CONSPIRACY!

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  3. That’s right Joey, keep picking against me 😉

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  4. My team seems to live to prove Joey wrong. From week best score week 1 to league worst score week 2.

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