g33kBowl Week 4 Predictions

Last week I talked about how Week 3 is a monumental week.  It’s one where you have to determine whether your team has the right stuff, and start making smart trades and doing well on the Waiver Wire to ensure that you can have some success for the rest of the year.  With some many people in our g33kBowl League at 1-2 or 2-1 I wanted to touch on another important thing to think about while playing Fantasy Football.

The perception of your current team being an illusion.  Allow me to explain.

Weeks 3-4 are times when you need to find out what your team is good at and what it isn’t and start fixing it.  What can easily happen though, is that success or failure can lead to you making incorrect decisions.  For example, in my home league with the local g33kWatch staff members, I am 0-3.  I average about 100+ points a game, and have two of the best Wide Receivers in the game with Roddy White and Mike Wallace.  Why am I 0-3 though right now?  Combination of things.  Antonio Gates and Michael Vick haven’t yet panned out for me (it was a known risk I was willing to take), and the teams I have faced have had their best weeks against me.  This happens quite often.  It’s easy for me to think that my team is total garbage because if it was good I would have won.  That’s not always the true story.  Sure I may have some things I can improve (QB / TE depth, few better RB’s, etc) but overall I have a strong team I just need to get some luck my way.

What’s the purpose of the story?  Don’t fall for the illusion.  If you are 0-3, don’t overreact and just trade all of your players for other people.  You might have a terrible team that needs a shot in the arm, but you may also have a good team that has just been roughed up.  Case in point, Katie in that same league scored 145 points in Week 2 and lost to someone who got 160.  She doesn’t have a bad team, just an unlucky week.  Don’t overreact!  On the flip side though, just because you are undefeated, don’t just assume you are the best and don’t need to mess around with your team.  Even when you are doing well, you may still have weaknesses.  That team in the other league that scored 160?  Just had to trade for a WR because they have zero depth at that position.  He could have stood pat, but he realized that his current success is nice, but the idea that it was sustainable was the illusion.

Make good trades, don’t take a bad deal just because you are doing well or badly.  Even if you are doing super well, pick up those hot players off of Waivers.  They can help you in later weeks or you can use them as trade bait.  Don’t fall for the illusion!  And now, my week 4 picks.

Prediction Record: (9-12)

Week 4 Matchups

Scottish Highlanders (2-1)
Binary Rock-Jocks (1-2)
Analysis

I first have to say what a fantastic job both of these teams have done given the circumstances. Yes, Majikman and the Scottish Highlanders lost Jaamal Charles for the rest of the season just recently and that has decimated his RB core. Yet let’s not forget the Binary Rock-Jocks who have a very respectable 1-2 record WITHOUT Peyton Manning for the entire season. Binary essentially took his first round pick and threw it in the garbage. Yet here he is with a respectable record and averaging over 100 points the past two weeks.

This game comes down to which team’s replacement players play better. The Rock-Jocks have the clear advantage at the RB spots, but the highlanders are very strong at WR and QB. The advantage is going to become what matchups the individual players have, and at a glance it looks to me like the Rock-Jocks have way easier defenses to go up against than the Higlanders.

Predicted Winner: Binary Rock-Jocks

Lunaris Robunnys (2-1)
The Besaid Aurochs (1-2)
Analysis

Wow, this is a very difficult game to call. I know it feels like I say that all the time but let’s look at the last three games for each team. Starting in Week 1, the Robunnys scored 82 points in a win, 120 points in a Week 2 win, and then dropped off the face of the earth with a 56 point loss in Week 3. In that same period, the Aurochs only managed 47 points in a loss Week 1, pumped back up to 96 points in a Week 2 win, but then came back a bit with 75 points in a Week 3 loss. Are these teams inconsistent or did they just have a few bad weeks? It’s a little bit of both.

I’m firmly believing that the Robunnys just had a bad Week 3. No one showed up for them and that’s ok, these things happen. Yet if points aren’t coming from Rivers, Jackson and Peterson, I have no idea who is going to score for that team. Katie and the Aurochs though, outside of Roddy White and Mike Wallace, she doesn’t have any players right now that scare you. For both teams, if the stars don’t align correctly, we can get some stinkers out there. This week? I’m going to say that it’s a low scoring game, but that the Robunnys have more reliable options.

Predicted Winner: Lunaris Robunnys

NJ Fear Boners (2-1)
English Kniggits (0-3)
Analysis

It has been a rough few weeks for Soah and the English Kniggits. While the team still hasn’t won a game, I do have a lot of optimism in the fact that they have increased their score output each and every week. Looking at his team now, Arian Foster is slated to come back, Darren Sproles is a beast, Jason Witten is solid, and his WR’s are outputing consistent numbers. On the other hand the Fear Boners have some great players in Fitzgerald, Vick, Best and Hightower, but consistent is not necessarily something that this team will bank on. When those players are on, the Fear Boners have the potential to score the most points in the g33kBowl. When they are off though, it can be gruesome.

MZ of the Fear Boners joked that whenever I pick against him, he wins. Well on the flip side of that, I hadn’t picked Soah and the English Kniggits to win yet, and so far I have been right about it. This week, I’m going with the consistent improvement of the Kniggits vs the potential of the Fear Boners. We’ll see if my pick has any significance after the matchup.

Predicted Winner: English Kniggits

Zombie Black Bears (1-2)
Team Malfunct (2-1)
Analysis

For someone who didn’t hit it out of the park with his draft, Malfunct is still strutting around the g33kBowl with a 2-1 record. He has slowly been making his team better via trades and wise Waiver Wire pick ups. On the other hand, our Preseason favorites the Zombie Black Bears led by head Necromancer Eco have not lived up to expectations as of yet. While she does have the amazing Tom Brady throwing for the Black Bears, the rest of the team has been floundering around her and it’s resulting in less and less points each week. Malfunct on the other hand has his own stud QB in Aaron Rodgers and is also now sporting a much improved WR core with latest additions Sidney Rice and Anquan Boldin.

When making picks it’s really tough for me to right now vote against Tom Brady. The dude is a machine, one that even when he throws 4 Interceptions, he still comes up with 20+ Fantasy Points. Yet I like the direction that Malfunct is going and that, coupled with my concern over Eco’s RB / WR core is letting me cast my vote for the man in Washington State.

Predicted Winner: Team Malfunct

Mars Space Cowboys (1-2)
Team Caporrino (1-2)
Analysis

I wanted to come up with a big long funny story for why one team would beat the other. Shit part of me wanted to throw a prediction Caporrino’s way just so that she would be encouraged and hopefully those good cosmic waves would hit her players and she could win. Yet here’s the thing … I don’t think Cappy is paying attention to this league. I mean Kenny Britt is out for the season and he’s still in her starting lineup. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on her bench scoring upwards for 20+ a game! DeAngelo Williams is still playing for her and that is just ludicrous as this point.

So with that knowledge in mind, and seeing that Pedro’s Space Cowboys are all in relatively good health, I’m going to Mars for this weekend’s victory party.

Predicted Winner: Mars Space Cowboys

Citadel Spectres (3-0)
Tuchanka Thresher Maw’s (2-1)
Analysis

I won’t lie to you, after that first week, the Thresher Maw’s scared the crap out of me. Scoring that many points right out of the gate when most Fantasy teams are trying to get their bearings, is a little intimidating. That second week loss was a bit jarring, but Terry and the Maw’s of Tuchanka bounced back very nicely in Week 3. My own Spectres have been chugging along nicely, with the team finally finding some sort of grove and averaging above 100 points each of the last two weeks. Not to toot my own horn here, but with Romo, McFadden, Finely, and Andre Johnson, I’m really pleased with my team.

Yet on the other side the Thresher Maw’s do have my boy Drew Brees and MJD who alone those two can win you a week. That bench though is a little sparse and that could prove to be the downfall. You know what, I like Terry but it’s my site and I’m going to vote for the Spectres. If I win great, if I lose, everyone can make fun of me for picking my own team. Win Win!

Predicted Winner: Citadel Spectres

Week 4 Spotlight Match

Hoboken Dread Pirates (1-2)
ARRGAN IISOU (2-1)
Analysis

It’s finally that time. The international rivalry has finally come to Fantasy Football. In one corner, representing the Hoboken Dread Pirates, we have the American born Chris “The Gunshow” Campbell. In the other corner, his nemesis representing the redcoats of ARRGAN IISOU, Jimmy aka Drakmarth.

This is a difficult game for me to call, obviously because of my connection to both men. Chris was the best man at my wedding, my best friend in real life, and a man who loves his football. Jimmy is someone who is currently sacrificing his hair for a year, helping myself and the rest of the team raise a ton of money for Child’s Play Charity, and is my main Bro for Gears of War. No matter what I pick in this matchup, I’m going to anger someone. So I need to think with just my head and leave the heart of it. So here we go.

The combination of Miles Austin being out and Chris Johnson playing like utter dog shit has me very concerned for the Dread Pirates. This is highly offset though by the fantastic play of Wes Welker. On the other side, for ARRGAN IISOU, LeSean McCoy has been a beast in every sense of the word. Matt Schaub at QB is improving week after week, and Robert Meachem at WR is providing consistent points. We may also see Dez Bryant have a better game than last week with a bit more rest under his belt and Austin out of the game to not steal targets.

My heart wants me to say that the Dread Pirates will pull it off. But until Chris Johnson shows up in shape and plays a good game, I can’t go with him. Advantage to ARRGAN IISOU

Predicted Winner: ARRGAN IISOU

Joseph Valenti

Founder of g33kWatch, Joe is the guy who makes sure nobody hurts themselves. Connect with me on Google+

7 Comments:

  1. It’s cool, it’s cool. I’m in MZ’s boat. Every time you pick me to win, I lose, and vice versa. The Gametime Decision Zombie Bears will rise again.

  2. Will be close vs Binary this week but Gates out, Ram/Colt/Brown WR’s a plenty theres not enough points (typically) to put up many here. Now I shall await career fantasy days for all nine positions from his team :-p

  3. It’s the clash of Dread Pirates and Dastardly Pirates, whoever wins, someone is going to get keelhauled and booty will be mostly definitely buried under a large X!

    And that X will be the marker for every touchdown for ARRGAN IISOU!

    YARHARHARHAR!

  4. Yeah Majik this will be interesting. Now with Gates out my top two draft picks were wasted. Not to mention I picked CJ Spiller 4th because I’m a moron. Thank god I still picked up Fred Jackson. In fact, I’ve since dropped 11 of my draft picks. Horrible draft in hindsight.

    I’m happy I’ve still managed to be somewhat respectable, but I’m very much looking forward to next year’s season when I won’t draft like a moron.

  5. Every time you predict me, I lose. This will be the week it changes, simply because I’m putting the comic waves out there. It’s a new month, and the shittiness of this month is going to end now!!!!!!

  6. WHAT DID I TELL YOU! Though it was pretty close.

    So close that the BONERS were very afraid

  7. Chalk up another lose for the Kniggits. It’s become tradition at this point.

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