The Complete Unknown – 2013 g33kBowl Week 1 Predictions

You just never know what will happen in Week 1Woooo!  It’s finally time for us to start playing Fantasy Football again!

Week 1 is a really tumultuous time for trying to predict how your team will do.  You spend so much time in the summer theorizing, speculating, planning, drafting, and hoping that you can create the best team possible.  Yet you come to Week 1 and what do you really know?  The answer is nothing.  We know nothing about what is about to happen for this season.

We have historical precedence to look back on, and hopefully be able to use that to make some informed decisions on who to play and who to avoid, but it’s very unpredictable.  That doesn’t mean that it’s impossible to have a good Week 1, but it does mean that you can’t read too much into what happens this week.  If you lose big time, don’t let it get you down.  If you win by a huge margin and make a joke of the matchup, don’t get a big ego and just assume that this season is going to be easy.  The moment that you lose your focus and assume that you are going to lose or win, is the time your season goes down the drain.

Take last year as an example.  Week 1, MZ and the NJ Fear Boners scored an astonishing 130 points and easily won their matchup.  They ended that season 2-9-2.  They only were able to win one other game the entire year, and tied twice.  Pretty rough season after coming out so well in Week 1.  The other good example from last year was Mike of the Soldier’s Peak Wardens score a woefully low 47 points total in Week 1.  It was clearly the lowest of the week, and people had assumed he was done.  Mike and the Warden went on to be 8-5 that season and just barely missing the playoffs.

SWant a risky / high upside sleeper? EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills QBo you want my advice for Week 1?  Take risks!  If you have a weird feeling that a player is going to have a huge game, even though they are not highly ranked, put them in the game!  Weird stuff happens in Week 1, both positive and negative, so don’t assume we have any fucking clue who is good and who is bad right now.  Take some risks, try some unproven players out, and get ready for a really wild ride as we begin the 2013 Fantasy Football season.

As I have done the last two years, I will continue to predict who I think is going to win each week.  Thus far, I have proven that I’m pretty good at this whole analysis thing.  Of course, it could also mean I’m just really lucky.  Either way, it should be fun this year!

Joey V 2012 Prediction Record: (57-27)
Joey V 2011 Prediction Record: (52-39)

Week 1 Matchups

ARRGAN IISOU
Mars Space Cowboys
Threat Assessment
3 out of 5
Threat Assessment
4 out of 5

Analysis

Sometimes you pick a winner based on the pure talent of the players someone drafted.  Other times, you look at the terrible teams those players are going up against, and realize that they will have a huge week just based on matchups.  This week, Pedro and the Mars Space Cowboys seem to have all the favorable matchups.

Arian Foster has a really easy matchup against the lowly Chargers, Steven Jackson against the terrible Saints defense, Vincent Jackson against the Jets, and Amendola playing the Bills.  All of that seems to be pointing to a ton of points at four main skill positions.  If you want to make an argument against one of them though, Vincent Jackson going up against Antonio Cromartie could be a bad matchup.  Cromartie had had times in his career where he has lapses playing Cornerback, but last year in the absence of Darrell Revis, he really stepped up his game.  I still think Jackson will have a good game based on his amazing talent level, but Cromartie defending him is a concern.  Tony Romo isn’t a bad play against the Giants, but since the Giants and Cowboys know each other so well, you have no idea how effective Romo is going to be.  In flex, the Space Cowboys are going with Eddie Lacy, and boy does the rookie have a challenge in his first ever game.  He’ll have to rush against the vaunted San Francisco 49ers defense, and I’m not optimistic about Lacy making an impact.  On the plus side, the Space Cowboys have the Packers defense going up against the 49ers and with all the injuries the Niners have taken this summer, Packers defense may get some stops.

The pirates of ARRGAN IISOU have some great players on their squad, but they look to have some tough matchups this week.  Aaron Rodgers and James Jones against the pesky Niners defense, Matt Forte rushing into the underrated Bengals, and Jason Witten going against the Giants.  What might have to be the key to success is Darren McFadden.  McFadden is going up against a solid Indianapolis Colts team, but their defense can be run on.  If McFadden can get off to a good start and have a solid week, that might make keep them in the game if their other players struggle.  While that is very possible, it’s hard to predict when McFadden is going to play up to his potential and not get hurt.  Feel like the Space Cowboys have a much better shot at playing consistent and pulling this off.

Predicted Winner: Mars Space Cowboys

Soldier’s Peak Wardens
Citadel Spectres
Threat Assessment
3 out of 5
Threat Assessment
2 out of 5

Analysis

Sometimes you look at player matchups.  With this game against the Wardens & Spectres though (love that improntu BioWare feud), much easier and better to look straight at player talent.  Both teams have talent, just a matter of what talent you think wins out.  To me, and maybe I’m biased here, this all comes down to the Wide Receiver position.  The Wardens have Reggie Wayne and Sidney Rice, whereas the Spectres are trotting out Wes Welker and Jordy Nelson.  I just think that the Wardens have the more talented players at that spot, and that advantage is going to make all the difference.

Both teams have solid QB’s, with Wardens having Cam Newton and the Spectres with Drew Brees, so that is essentially a wash.  Running Back also seems fine, with the Wardens going with Jaamal Charles and Steven Ridley whereas the Spectres have Ray Rice and Darren Sproles.  Actually, now that I think about it, Charles and Ridley are better than Rice and Sproles, so that’s another advantage there.  Unless the Spectres can get monster performances out of Brees, Sproles, Rice and Chris Ivory in the Flex, I see the Wardens running away with this one.

Predicted Winner: Soldier’s Peak Wardens

Scottish Highlanders
Zombie Black Bears
Threat Assessment
2 out of 5
Threat Assessment
3 out of 5

Analysis

Our champions from the inaugural season of the g33kBowl, the Scottish Highlanders, are trying to get off to a good start this year and make another long playoff run.  Looking over their squad though I don’t initially see them being able to do that.  there are obviously some good players, but there are some deficiencies at RB2, WR2 and Flex.  Currently slotted to start Ahmad Bradshaw at RB2, Miles Austin at WR2 and Greg Jennings at Flex just doesn’t fill me with confidence.  Maybe it would have a few years ago when all three of those players were at the top of their games, but in their current state I am more inclined to be a bit down on their potential.

On the other side are the Zombie Black Bears, a team that for two years now we have expected nothing but total domination.  We haven’t seen that just yet, but this might be the year.  The reason, is a very solid RB2, WR2 and Flex.  David Wilson, Steve Smith and Pieree Garcon at those positions really make a difference, and should be the key to victory here in the opening week.  give me the Zombie Black Bears!

Predicted Winner: Zombie Black Bears

Lunaris Robunnys
Hoboken Dread Pirates
Threat Assessment
4 out of 5
Threat Assessment
2 out of 5

Analysis

During my round by round draft analysis I was a little hard on Chris and the Hoboken Dread Pirates.  I was not a fan of their decision to go for two elite Wide Receivers before picking up any Running Backs.  That left them with some not so great players in DeMarco Murray and Rashard Mendenhall at RB1 & 2.  Murray can’t stay healthy, and we just don’t know what to expect from Mendenhall.  The Dread Pirates pretty much have two of the top three wide outs in Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant.  So the question becomes, can their dominance at that position make up for their deficiencies in others?

This week, I think not.

Yogi and the Robunnys are coming in with CJ Spiller, and Lamar Miller at RB and that is a much better duo.  While the Robunnys aren’t stacked at WR, they still have solid players in Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston.  While the duo of Marshall and Colston are not as good as Johnson and Bryant, they aren’t so bad that they will flat out lose that position battle.  In fact, for this week I think they might be able to win.  Unless the Dread Pirates get upwards of 20-30 points from their dynamic wideout duo, I think the Robunnys run away with this game.

Predicted Winner: Lunaris Robunnys

NJ Fear Boners
Cydonia Chryssalids
Threat Assessment
3 out of 5
Threat Assessment
4 out of 5

Analysis

This is actually going to be a super close matchup in my opinion.  The Boners have the edge in Quarterback with Matthew Stafford over Andrew Luck, but the Chryssalids have a better Running Back duo in Doug Martin & Reggie Bush vs Alfred Morris & Chris Johsnon.  Granted, these positional advantages aren’t extreme, but I definitely see clear advantages.  So since each team is evenly matched there, let’s call that a wash.  The Fear Boners have slightly better wide outs in Demariyus Thomas & Mike Wallace vs Randall Cobb & Eric Decker, but Chryssalids have the best Tight End in football in Jimmy Graham.

So which team has the advantage?  I’m going to say that it’s Paul and the Cydonia Chryssalids that pull this one out.  Since both teams are so evenly matched, I have to be a little nit picky and try and focus in on small differences.  With the Chryssalids having Graham, and with their QB Luck playing against the terrible Oakland Raiders, I think that’s enough to give them the nod in this contest.

Predicted Winner: Cydonia Chryssalids

Week 1 Spotlight Match

Hopped Up Titans
The Besaid Aurochs
Threat Assessment
5 out of 5
Threat Assessment
4 out of 5

Analysis

Why is this the spotlight match for Week 1?  Why, it’s the opening game for our defending champions, Malfunct and the Hopped Up Titans!  I mean, how could this not be our featured game?!  Katie and The Besaid Aurochs have stated over and over again that they not only want to make the playoffs this year, but she wants to win.  Well, she gets her chance to get off to a good start against the Hopped Up Titans who had the most improvement in the league last year.

If you looked at the projected scores on ESPN, they have Malfunct winning by 9 points with solid play by all of his players.  Obviously, we know that the projected score never comes to be, but it does pose an interesting question.  Do the Hopped Up Titans have more consistent players than the Aurochs?  Very possible.  They have a solid core of Russell Wilson, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, AJ Green, Victor Cruz and Tony Gonzalez.  That is a pretty stacked team, and on any other week I would generally pick them to win.

But I just have a gut feeling about the Aurochs this week.  Katie and crew have a lineup of RG3, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones Drew, Roddie White, and Dwayne Bowe.  That is none too shabby, and I think for this week, has more upside than her opponent.  RG3 is playing the Eagles this week and he has torched them in the past when healthy.  Meanwhile Adrian Peterson is going up against the Lions and the Lions simply can not stop AP at all.  I think those two things alone will be the difference maker.

Don’t be surprised if this is a preview of the championship game.  I think this time it goes to the Aurochs but who knows about future matchups.  Plus it just wouldn’t be a season opener if I didn’t pick against Malfunct.  =)

Predicted Winner: The Besaid Aurochs

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Joseph Valenti

Founder of g33kWatch, Joe is the guy who makes sure nobody hurts themselves. Connect with me on Google+

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